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Israel and the Islamists
Oh no! But let’s talk, maybe
Israel is appalled by the surge of Islamists but may want to talk to them
Dec 10th 2011 | JERUSALEM | from the print edition
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THE election results in Egypt are an Islamist “hurricane”, “deluge” or “tsunami”, according to Israeli newspaper headlines. The defence minister, Ehud Barak, called them “very worrisome”. Officials, sounding cool, noted that there were precious few relations left to break, since Egypt had long been severing ties to punish Israel for refusing to yield to the Palestinians in the peace process. Egyptian-Israeli agricultural schemes long ago ground to a halt. Factories with Israeli links that had profited from tariff-free exports to the United States have shut. Since Egypt’s revolution began in January, Israeli tourists have virtually stopped coming. This year Egyptian militants have blown up a pipeline pumping Egyptian gas to Israel nine times. And Israel’s embassy in Cairo remains closed.
It could get worse. Before the Camp David peace accords were signed 33 years ago, Israel’s front with Egypt was its most menacing—and it could become so again. The Muslim Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch, Hamas, which, to Israel’s chagrin, still rules the Gaza Strip between Israel and Egypt, hopes that better relations with a new Islamist-oriented Egyptian government will bolster it.
Farther south, Egypt’s Sinai peninsula is becoming a lawless no-man’s-land, with Bedouin and Islamist militants at large. Yet Israel is loth to attack them, lest it ignite a broader war. When Israeli troops shot back at militants dressed in Egyptian army uniforms who killed eight Israelis near a Red Sea resort on the Israeli side of the border in August, Egyptian protesters stormed the Israeli embassy in Cairo. Another such attack might rupture Egyptian-Israeli diplomatic relations altogether.
In this section
* Everywhere on the rise
* »Oh no! But let’s talk, maybe
* It’s on the rise too
* Did they really mean to do it?
* President v judges
* It could get worse
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* Islamism
* Hamas
* Politics
* International relations
* Israeli politics
Even if Egypt’s Islamists refrain from scrapping the peace treaty, Israel fears they will seek to amend the clauses that provide for Sinai’s demilitarisation. They might even put the treaty to a referendum. The Salafists, though declaring themselves non-violent at present, could yet—Israelis fear—turn jihadist.
Israel’s generals are already battening down the hatches. They have speeded the construction of a vast concrete wall along Israel’s 240-km (150-mile) border with Egypt and deployed another brigade to patrol it. Drones peer over the border at Sinai. Some Israeli generals hope that old ties with their Egyptian counterparts will survive. They may be too optimistic.
If the Islamists end up ruling Egypt, might they seek to engage with Israel? Precedent is not encouraging. When Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006 and then asserted sole control over Gaza the following year, Israel opted for boycott and siege unless Hamas recognised Israel, among other things. After President Hosni Mubarak’s fall in February, Israeli diplomats in Cairo suggested making overtures to the Muslim Brotherhood, only to be told from on high to desist.
Israelis often reckon that order, even if imposed by a hostile entity, is better than chaos. (This may apply to Syria under the Assad family too.) Moreover, thanks to Israel’s indirect and informal contacts with Hamas, a modicum of peace has returned to Gaza. “With Hamas, we can do whatever we wish,” says an Israeli who talks to it.
Calming pragmatic statements by Muslim Brotherhood leaders in Cairo hint at an accommodation. Muhammad Salem Awa, a leading Brother, condemned the attack on Israel’s embassy. The Brothers’ election manifesto says that Egypt’s international agreements must be upheld, presumably including those with Israel. The Brothers’ desire for good relations with the West and for tourism to revive will make a confrontation less likely.
In a sign of things to come, Rachid Ghannouchi, head of Nahda, the Tunisian Islamists who are close to the Brotherhood, recently met Israelis discreetly in Washington. He said that Tunisia’s constitution would not ban further contact. “The new political Islam is more realistic,” says Israel’s outgoing ambassador to Egypt, Yitzhak Levanon, who wants to engage.
For decades Israel’s security people ran policy with Egypt. But as generals lose power across the region, Israel’s politicians, including religious ones, may try their hand. “Men of religion understand each other better,” says the religious-affairs minister, Yaakov Margov of Shas, one of two Orthodox parties in Israel’s ruling coalition. “I am ready to meet the Brotherhood any time, any place,” he says. His party leader, Eli Yishai, once even offered to meet Hamas, until others in Israel’s then government reined him in.
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